MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d8545dd0d9669efc75db76e35c8230248424d5c74e48c8e437a4c58fca26ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 56c | 165,896$92,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,319.59 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 44c | 107,307$47,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,092.04 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 28,552$12,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,704.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…63f9backed Over | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 3,106$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.3 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,741$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 53c | 2,088$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.64 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 1,955$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 19c | 1,804$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.27 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 1,389$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.76 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 3c | 1,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 3c | 1,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 1,080$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.7 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.01 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 823.19$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 8c | 774$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 47c | 736$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 539.96$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.95 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 23c | 530$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.8 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 528.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Over | 22c | 451.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.33 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 3c | 392.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 4c | 377.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 44c | 377.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.97 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 366.7$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.91 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 360$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 320.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 45c | 316.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.95 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 45c | 309.03$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.48 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 55c | 184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 171.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 159.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 46c | 132.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 46c | 122.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Over | 19c | 120.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 49c | 106.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 99.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 45c | 91.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 54c | 84.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 45c | 67.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 50c | 66.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 57.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…bcfdbacked Over | 45c | 46.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 54c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 56c | 41.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 44c | 41.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed Over | 44c | 40.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 26.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Over | 45c | 25.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…323abacked Under | 79c | 15.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.