MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3268dbe2009fa068de2e73ad03006757211be4a9a24996f359297b6bfe72dba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 45c | 81,005$36,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,054.13 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 40,523$22,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,057.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 57c | 15,000$8,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,525 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…63f9backed Over | 55c | 9,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 43c | 4,500$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 3,381$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Over | 56c | 2,643$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 2,359$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,267$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 43c | 2,198$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.1 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 47c | 2,129$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.51 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 1,840$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.29 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 55c | 1,816$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.36 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 56c | 1,502$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 1,100$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 1,058$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.95 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Over | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 46c | 843.22$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.88 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 55c | 764$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 18c | 600$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 416$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 325$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 322.49$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 72c | 315$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.1 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 57c | 279$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 56c | 202.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 53c | 191.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 184.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 68c | 180$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Over | 56c | 177.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 170.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 56c | 162.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 155.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Over | 49c | 142$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 53c | 141$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 57c | 87.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Under | 44c | 84.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 44c | 78.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 47c | 78.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 56c | 66.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 42c | 57.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Over | 56c | 54.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 55c | 43.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Over | 56c | 35.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 34.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 60c | 25.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0f8dbacked Under | 43c | 24.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 59c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.