MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811396527a59c8a31e5e6c9ae8c467d9cb326360b1f2e599a417279c9e213fd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 4,368$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.7 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 3,710$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 59c | 3,458$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Athletics | 52c | 2,426$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.52 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 50c | 1,482$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Athletics | 53c | 1,114$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.41 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,109$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.68 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 59c | 1,023$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 906$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Athletics | 54c | 615.22$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 435.31$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.22 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 57c | 272.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 222$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Athletics | 57c | 174.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Athletics | 51c | 165.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Athletics | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Athletics | 56c | 143.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Athletics | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics | 53c | 132.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Athletics | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 124$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 113.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 108.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Athletics | 48c | 94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 88.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 86.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 53c | 82.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 68c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Athletics | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Athletics | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 69.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Athletics | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Athletics | 53c | 57.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Athletics | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…7711backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 53c | 54.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…95dbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 49.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 53c | 42.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Athletics | 53c | 38.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Athletics | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…3542backed Athletics | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Athletics | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Athletics | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Athletics | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Athletics | 56c | 24.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 24.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Athletics | 54c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Athletics | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Athletics | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.