Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Monfils (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da5bc75f30a50f2b2f6878f3fad61a681d9f204c658f32ea0e71565879446a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Monfilsof Auger-Aliassime, Monfils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Monfils | 47c | 2,364$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.33 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Auger-Aliassime | 63c | 2,337$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.81 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Monfils | 38c | 1,004$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.63 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Monfils | 38c | 838.73$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…f7ddbacked Auger-Aliassime | 61c | 574.19$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Monfils | 38c | 479.32$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.54 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…98cfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.5 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Monfils | 35c | 299.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.49 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Auger-Aliassime | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Auger-Aliassime | 39c | 229.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 62c | 177.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Monfils | 56c | 167.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 167.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 149.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…16fbbacked Monfils | 38c | 140.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Monfils | 41c | 138.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 124.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…e61dbacked Monfils | 57c | 112.28$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Monfils | 60c | 101.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Auger-Aliassime | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Monfils | 40c | 81.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Auger-Aliassime | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Monfils | 37c | 65.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d3…2d0fbacked Monfils | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Monfils | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…dbeebacked Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Monfils | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Monfils | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Monfils | 53c | 49.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…df3cbacked Monfils | 38c | 39.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…0f16backed Monfils | 41c | 37.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 31.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Monfils | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 217 | 58.1%126 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5928…472abacked Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Monfils (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Gael Monfils vs Felix Auger-AliassimeFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Gael Monfils vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Monfils vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Monfils vs Auger-AliassimeMonfils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.