Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db0171f39b8c3ce02584b6ccba8cda81cf5d70283b506cad3d94c5480f5c684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed69…ba7dbacked Yes | 71c | 2,492$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 65c | 272.37$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 79c | 261.6$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 6c | 236.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 34c | 222.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed Yes | 62c | 217.95$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 211.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 181$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 179.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 33c | 171.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 35c | 159.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 157.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 155.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed Yes | 72c | 130.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 115.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 101.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed No | 37c | 100.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 53c | 91.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 66c | 88.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 38c | 74.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 69c | 70.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…2949backed No | 28c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed No | 38c | 50.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 34c | 49.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 64c | 47.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 35c | 41.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 36c | 41.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 39.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 39c | 38.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed Yes | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 42c | 35.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed No | 39c | 31.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 30.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed No | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 64c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked Yes | 61c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed Yes | 62c | 23.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed Yes | 65c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.