Earnings · resolved market
Will Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db309d12abf862f911a49880cd384e44c764aaf14f69eb92577c68a1647e1c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 31c | 1,065$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.12 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 67c | 794.52$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 25c | 481.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 31c | 453.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 45c | 404.23$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 69c | 341.8$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 65c | 306.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 63c | 289$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.93 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 16c | 252.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…6b10backed No | 4c | 241.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…3f25backed No | 5c | 228.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a93…0c22backed No | 5c | 227.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…b02abacked No | 5c | 227$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ccebbacked No | 5c | 226.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dea…b3f5backed No | 5c | 226.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…d89cbacked No | 5c | 225.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42eb…e0d4backed No | 5c | 225.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 65c | 224.58$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…da67backed No | 5c | 223$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc9…ddcfbacked No | 5c | 222.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 33c | 215.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 70c | 199.63$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 181.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 10c | 118.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 111.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 30c | 96.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 29c | 80.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d8…0af3backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 69c | 73.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked No | 42c | 68.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 64c | 59.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 71c | 56.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 79c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…ce30backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…5307backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed No | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 73c | 48.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…8fa9backed Yes | 72c | 48.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 68c | 44.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…c08fbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 35.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 59c | 30.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 74c | 27.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…6364backed Yes | 70c | 22.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…fb6abacked Yes | 77c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.