Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dcc17068056e6658e0b9201ff5db790468c84b9401a2644ac7b64a1151f9086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 390.07$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 45c | 299.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 47c | 265.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 19c | 232.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 222.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 28c | 198.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 75c | 189.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 163.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 159.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 158.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 157$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 133.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 127.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 73c | 111.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 109.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 37c | 100.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 96.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 74c | 94.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 90.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 83.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 81.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 30c | 75.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 59c | 74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 42c | 72.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 69.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 61.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 40c | 58.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 18c | 57.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 57.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 37c | 54.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 52.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2920backed Yes | 47c | 51.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 61c | 49.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 72c | 47.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 39.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 41c | 38.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 35.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 69c | 33.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 47c | 31.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 40c | 31.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 31.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 30.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 47c | 30.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 55c | 28.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 42c | 28.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 60c | 27.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked No | 55c | 26.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 53c | 26.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 42c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 24.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 64c | 23.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 64c | 23.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 60c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 55c | 22.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 61c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f5…6070backed Yes | 58c | 19.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +198.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 61c | 18.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 18.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.