TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,527
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,527 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes79c390.07$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9954143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes45c299.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7817140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes47c265.97$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.956048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No19c232.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.073,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c222.95$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No28c198.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.651,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes75c189.48$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6161365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c163.35$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes64c159.46$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.211,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes76c158.76$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.485,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c157$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.335,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c133.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.071,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No67c127.41$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes73c111.17$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.852446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No55c109.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes37c100.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4625935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No22c96.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes74c94.16$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9222171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No24c90.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.361,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes43c83.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.484,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No30c81.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.232,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No30c75.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No59c74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No42c72.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c69.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c64.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.153,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes37c61.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.099,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c59.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No40c58.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No18c57.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes37c57.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3232738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No37c54.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes38c52.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.972,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2720…2920backed Yes47c51.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.221566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.514134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9037…0386backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.772,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.223,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No57c49.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes61c49.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.581,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.363,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes72c47.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.413,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No60c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No63c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1557264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.217644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes40c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0221339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes69c39.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.521,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No41c38.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7134970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes64c37.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes79c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7733561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c35.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.130565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes69c33.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.371,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa52d…a95abacked No47c31.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.054951%25 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes40c31.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9368645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No50c31.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.452,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No57c30.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.281,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes49c30.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6514745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No47c30.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.244,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…76c2backed No55c28.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.576852.9%36 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes42c28.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.635135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.562,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes60c27.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x59c1…12cebacked No55c26.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.782835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No53c26.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1627464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2575…a354backed Yes42c25.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.731838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3ed…159ebacked Yes43c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.252347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No59c24.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05bc…008abacked No64c23.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.799758.8%57 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa9…a323backed No64c23.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.797755.8%43 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-12.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes60c22.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9917144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No55c22.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…e862backed No58c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.766861.8%42 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c20.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9340871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No61c20.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3144448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.260519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f5…6070backed Yes58c19.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+198.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed No61c18.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3510636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No60c18.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.081,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c17.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.017,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.