Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc26cda8a1b9705370c2509044d22c613dafcf568bd22949e9854e3c719602e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 979.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 77c | 551.99$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 20c | 510.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 478.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 28c | 372.57$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 157$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 155.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 123$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 112.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 31c | 100.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 79.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 61.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 74c | 59.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 34c | 58.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 47.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 45.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 76c | 38.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 35.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2920backed No | 68c | 35.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 34.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 33.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 33c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 31.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 69c | 22.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 21.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 21.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 74c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 77c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.