Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dce852219bb6fc9887765bb2b35897cfe18c3c0bd784f717cc9f25948efb718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 6c | 1,006$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 34c | 510.21$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.94 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 374.11$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 66c | 302.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 19c | 236.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 51c | 194.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 176.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 146.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 28c | 144.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 142.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 35c | 95.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 23c | 89.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 80.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 32c | 75.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 64c | 59.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 55.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 61c | 55.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 42c | 52.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 68c | 50.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 48c | 48.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 78c | 47.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…785ebacked Yes | 25c | 47.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 71c | 46.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 34c | 46.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 30c | 45.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 53c | 43.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 72c | 40.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 37.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 37.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 56c | 36.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 61c | 31.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 65c | 29.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…9773backed No | 75c | 29.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed Yes | 57c | 29.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 29.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 67c | 28.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 28.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 27.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 80c | 26.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 63c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 64c | 22.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…f5debacked Yes | 70c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 64c | 19.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…3db6backed Yes | 76c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 69c | 18.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 72c | 16.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.