Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2df8c2a2a0a144b38b8665c94672b39f66af076fcee226927bac483c87d9b4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0979…8d9bbacked Yes | 71c | 30,777$21,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,916.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 28c | 20,743$5,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,838.5 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 25c | 15,561$3,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,940.72 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 74c | 4,830$3,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.16 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 59c | 3,445$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.77 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 2,412$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 74c | 2,339$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.95 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 21c | 1,505$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 1,129$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 1,099$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.08 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,090$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 26c | 624.65$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.24 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 72c | 577.46$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.77 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 74c | 533.32$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.66 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…51ebbacked No | 29c | 525$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 28c | 519.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 27c | 482.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.44 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 37c | 470.12$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 20c | 290$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 63c | 278.19$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 75c | 268.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 23c | 264.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 73c | 213.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.69 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 33c | 211.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed No | 25c | 199.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 47c | 168.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 76c | 140.29$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 23c | 139.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Yes | 21c | 123$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 35c | 121.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…446bbacked Yes | 28c | 110.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 110.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 23c | 107.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 57c | 100.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed No | 42c | 96.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…d934backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 28c | 71.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…f19abacked Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +89%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…d5f0backed Yes | 30c | 49.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 46.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 75c | 30.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed Yes | 62c | 28.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…5f8dbacked No | 73c | 21.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked No | 78c | 18.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-21?No won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.