TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$198,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0979…8d9bbacked No64c124,124$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,124.05366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes35c70,455$24,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,897.751,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes23c32,836$7,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,503.723,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes36c10,428$3,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,703.9423745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes33c7,912$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.362,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes36c3,381$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.214157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0803650%18 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed No63c2,986$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.92885.7%24 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Yes36c2,746$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…51ebbacked Yes38c2,740$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes18c2,222$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7601631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-47%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes36c1,819$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.842846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes35c1,700$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed No63c1,667$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.631973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes36c1,500$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9915847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked No63c1,490$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.29875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Yes17c1,471$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes36c1,420$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.1314846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63df…36c4backed Yes39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes38c1,231$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.0419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No63c1,139$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.4733945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes37c1,104$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.0644749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3702766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes37c972.67$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.9210040%40 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes9c899.81$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.85532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No61c835.3$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.612651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Yes35c814$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.97648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes7c809.85$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6910463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a63…de95backed Yes37c799.99$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes24c734.94$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8975142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes8c630$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.44141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Yes37c627.75$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.275554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e97…a3d7backed No63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked No64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa43…3215backed Yes37c556.76$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…8502backed Yes38c527.58$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.552437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18015024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd1…62b0backed Yes28c480$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc755…d0c4backed No64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.751154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6896…3682backed Yes10c460.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes28c427.63$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8656951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes35c411.68$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4702…457fbacked No63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes38c395.42$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2934342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d2…f395backed No63c330$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3623…b50dbacked No64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed No61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1175940.7%24 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed No62c299.98$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9910057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505046%23 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes38c292$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9610235.3%36 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Yes30c256.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.993050%15 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeebb…deffbacked No63c238.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.12360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce7…741cbacked No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Yes38c199$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.623354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes23c195.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2410150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes38c190$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No80c173.93$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0755058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.252560%15 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d4…b908backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe931…138bbacked No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed No64c154.88$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7611065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada6…5f4dbacked Yes13c138.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes38c138$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.315134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0843…97f5backed No63c136.51$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.512281.8%18 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes38c132.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.32per pick45cpaid+66.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No64c128$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.081957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Yes38c126$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8818545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2764…bcd7backed Yes37c117.76$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked No64c117.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.198169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked No63c111.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.111384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes38c105.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked No62c100.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.382015%3 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-66.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19c9…2e09backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick66cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Yes33c99.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.444645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed No63c98.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Yes39c93.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6314756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1aa…6ed0backed Yes38c88.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacfd…b36cbacked No63c78.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2d…1100backed No64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…6304backed No63c77.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.615166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96d4…33abbacked Yes38c76.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5408…7aebbacked No64c75.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x522f…79c2backed Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Yes38c52.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c3…9055backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3d…235fbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.55339.6%21 W · 32 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8fe…ba40backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yes37c48.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.975839.7%23 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1a7…8150backed No63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.621478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a02…0ef4backed No64c41.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.