MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e042c3f60a3112e46912288bbddef4176b8f2688d864e694d8f99d6ff90a636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets | 39c | 24,761$9,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,103.99 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 11,928$7,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,275.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 2,048$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.52 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 1,333$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 38c | 1,105$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.88 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 937.5$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 930.48$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.9 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 698.67$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.19 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 475.56$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.09 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 357.97$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 333$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 329.85$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.51 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 299$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 198.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 187$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 32c | 169$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed New York Mets | 62c | 153.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 143.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 143.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 50c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 37c | 104.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 101.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked New York Mets | 35c | 86.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 84.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 38c | 57.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 56.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 47.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 43.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Mets | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed New York Mets | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 23.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 16.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.