MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0e601a9815524b40fa3040ac41e311beba711fe0b1f35ab0e29d58758418484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 52c | 18,000$9,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,426.76 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 10,927$4,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,280.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 47c | 10,638$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.4 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 10,556$5,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,594.47 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 4,908$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 3,593$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.39 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,893$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 2,254$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…49debacked Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.84 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 1,955$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 1,532$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.31 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 44c | 1,501$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.8 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 11c | 1,440$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 1,218$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.47 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 1,187$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 1,111$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.72 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.48 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 51c | 970.69$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 872.01$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 839.54$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.44 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 47c | 612.73$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.75 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 47c | 585.96$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.58 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 46c | 570.04$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.82 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Under | 61c | 539.5$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.27 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 53c | 536.19$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.18 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 46c | 526.23$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.16 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 436.29$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 54c | 428.98$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.65 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 47c | 385$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.05 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 55c | 336.4$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 213.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 198.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 190.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 54c | 185$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 178.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 53c | 131.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 48c | 119.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 55c | 118.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Over | 56c | 83.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 67.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 42c | 50.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…cfbfbacked Over | 27c | 49.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 44.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 46c | 38.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 63c | 37.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Over | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 53c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 32.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 42c | 31.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 30.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 41c | 24.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 59c | 24.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 49c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed Under | 59c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Under | 59c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.