MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e1529469115885d79584c3b0e88479850591bbebd953afbce6f78a0ff2ebeda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 56c | 6,771$3,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.38 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 6,454$2,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 57c | 1,800$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 1,729$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 1,375$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 42c | 1,231$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 59c | 1,207$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.87 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 857.5$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.58 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 777.67$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 617.34$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Over | 57c | 599.99$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 595.47$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 60c | 370$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 58c | 319.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 36c | 250.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 43c | 181.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Under | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 60c | 36.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 43c | 27.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.