MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dc18477bf466123b2921d8d97b6f35333db95420d9aa5285a21736b34c39c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 61c | 2,369$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.41 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 875.6$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 818.64$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 805.48$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 42c | 574.71$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.38 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 561.73$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 338.36$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 221.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 123$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 32c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed Over | 57c | 91.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Over | 57c | 87.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Over | 57c | 87.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 39c | 59.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Over | 57c | 58.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 52.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f6…f7e6backed Over | 57c | 43.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 36.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 60c | 33.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 76c | 31.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…b924backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…3be8backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.