MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0f66fa96fd2c4093b1458f74417e7e7b84c5158b7dac807360df63a28ffc809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.82 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 2,977$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,607.33 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 499.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 491.71$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.52 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…059ebacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 469.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 80c | 360.25$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 334.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 301.24$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 299.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 19c | 173$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 17c | 157.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…16debacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9778backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…4739backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 41.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 35.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d0…bc0abacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…4b75backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…447cbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 24.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 23.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…2fd9backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…a89abacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.