Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e47e53722f88f81ae6299cc1e031f7f3cdcf53a8da3dd8e87ab81ca071b5f47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $398,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $445,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 2c | 111,088$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.78 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 3c | 52,146$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.39 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 4c | 17,517$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.62 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 2c | 15,054$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.39 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 3c | 13,205$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.92 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 4c | 10,919$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.71 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed No | 4c | 10,052$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.98 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 3c | 9,539$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.52 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 2c | 5,944$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked No | 5c | 4,119$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 3c | 2,331$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 133 | 27.1%36 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed No | 4c | 2,160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked No | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 255 | 32.9%84 W · 171 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,520$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +14.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked No | 3c | 1,250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…b29ebacked No | 3c | 1,162$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed No | 7c | 1,035$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 4c | 1,007$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…c19ebacked No | 4c | 833.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 3c | 831.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 3c | 780.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 4c | 716.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e0…785fbacked No | 3c | 692.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked No | 4c | 581$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc38f…8ebfbacked No | 4c | 510$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 4c | 500.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…9d4ebacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…c190backed No | 7c | 484.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked No | 4c | 421.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 4c | 416.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…a368backed No | 3c | 404.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 4c | 382.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…bb50backed No | 3c | 380.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…99fabacked No | 5c | 289.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…83c8backed No | 4c | 288.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked No | 6c | 245.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…fa25backed No | 6c | 220.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 7c | 150.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Salford City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Salford City FC win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.