NFL · resolved market
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5c333b31da3f0e7159f2a0763e56612c95396ab28ef232e49fa46b8310d562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 5c | 5,522$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 8c | 5,018$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.81 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 2c | 4,808$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 6c | 4,248$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 2,646$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3053…1b75backed Yes | 40c | 2,528$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 41c | 2,191$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.72 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Yes | 31c | 2,094$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…62d3backed Yes | 7c | 1,355$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 29c | 1,306$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.58 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 63c | 1,191$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 13c | 1,082$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed No | 60c | 1,050$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.5 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 5c | 950$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Yes | 42c | 807.11$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.1 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…959cbacked Yes | 1c | 750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 79c | 681.36$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 5c | 597.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd287…359ebacked Yes | 9c | 583.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 19c | 484.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 65c | 390$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 36c | 232.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 73c | 209.2$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Yes | 34c | 148.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 67c | 110.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…04a6backed Yes | 46c | 72.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…bef9backed Yes | 41c | 48.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…0d6fbacked No | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East?this page
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East?No won
- Will the New York Giants win the NFC East?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.