MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e70b2b23548b5c6d780bf45d6dab074c92c3e9e5142bf81bc9e67f7e3f9e74f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 10,006$7,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 5,574$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 5,267$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 24c | 4,801$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,863$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.99 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 1,077$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 540$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 526.24$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 272.84$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Tampa Bay Rays | 23c | 236$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 228.03$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Tampa Bay Rays | 26c | 195.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 193.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 156$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Tampa Bay Rays | 14c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Tampa Bay Rays | 23c | 85.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 65.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 65.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 60.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 59.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 27c | 57.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 39.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 35.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 35.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Washington Nationals | 76c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 13.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.