Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e77ccc3c7c1f51b4ac39afb77ac57f6922821e8fe655c6c4434183c6e118a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,600$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 8c | 1,153$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 9c | 878.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 15c | 518.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 500.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 11c | 465.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 393.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 334.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 318.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 6c | 303.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 16c | 251.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 17c | 231.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 169.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 15c | 158.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 11c | 143.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 9c | 137.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 135.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 19c | 119.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 15c | 119.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 106.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 12c | 99.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 14c | 86.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 80.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 16c | 74.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 77c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.