Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb802d92a69b036a2d7aaa7253f4793c753f5e67aa658a59bfa61856f55f97970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 36c | 2,440$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.99 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 48c | 664.7$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.84 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 38c | 628.5$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.46 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 39c | 530.88$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.8 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 38c | 504.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.37 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 473.09$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 408$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 52c | 321.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 287$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 286.08$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 282.84$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 282.66$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 38c | 281.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.06 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 256.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 244.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 31c | 240.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 24c | 198.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 191.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 24c | 180.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 180.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 62c | 162$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 149.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.51 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 69c | 140.21$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 138.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 57c | 132.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 131.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 67c | 131.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 129.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 124.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 124.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 123.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 122$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 60c | 121.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 64c | 119.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 76c | 109.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 30c | 107.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 42c | 106.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 94.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 93.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 89.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 88.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 60c | 77.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 32c | 76.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 74.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 74.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 38c | 71.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 58c | 71.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 37c | 70.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 36c | 68.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 71c | 67.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 64c | 66.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 64.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 31c | 64.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 64.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 64.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…fcdbbacked Yes | 31c | 63.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 69c | 63.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 60.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 67c | 58.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 56c | 58.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 66c | 54.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 41c | 54.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 57c | 52.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 31c | 51.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 36c | 51.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 49.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 32c | 49.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 47.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 38c | 47.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 68c | 46.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 63c | 46.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 34c | 43.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 43.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 42.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.