Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce230a85613e9a03c7ecda8c1d8c059dc15a2aea1ab56313fd4a4ed84ddf8ac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 1c | 8,918$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,755$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 48c | 553.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.47 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 35c | 475.07$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…1e76backed Yes | 49c | 328.91$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 50c | 250.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 239.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 48c | 219.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 52c | 216.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 216.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 202.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 50c | 200.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 198.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 48c | 184.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 46c | 174.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 59c | 165.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 48c | 161.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 49c | 155.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 149.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 149.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 69c | 142.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 139.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 55c | 136.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 135.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 48c | 126.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 125$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 121.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 121.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 117.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 117.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 115.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 113$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 44c | 103.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 103.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 58c | 99.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked No | 50c | 98.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 53c | 98.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked Yes | 49c | 96.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 48c | 94.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 92.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 50c | 90.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 88.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 87.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c96…959fbacked No | 60c | 86.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 43c | 86.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 55c | 86.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 43c | 83.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 52c | 75.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 74.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 16c | 73.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 48c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 52c | 68.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 48c | 68.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 68.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 56c | 67.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 67.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 46c | 65.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes | 52c | 64.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 47c | 64.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 56c | 63.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 41c | 61.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 48c | 59.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 66c | 59.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 59.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 59.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 45c | 58.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 45c | 55.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…913dbacked Yes | 46c | 51.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 46c | 50.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…a294backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…d111backed No | 51c | 47.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 55c | 45.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560f…bbb7backed Yes | 47c | 44.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 43.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 41.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…fcdbbacked Yes | 55c | 40.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…877cbacked Yes | 52c | 39.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 37.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 43c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.