MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7dd609c3df4c0d3479f59cda51f8d2da5bcfbd63efc8ffc187429eba66bea6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 2,691$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.61 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…76e7backed Under | 60c | 2,213$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 3c | 1,656$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 75c | 959.29$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 59c | 758$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.22 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 466$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 352.4$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.39 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 352$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 351.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 340.55$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 276.84$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 56c | 206.44$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 20c | 192.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 16c | 178$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 6c | 170.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 141.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 49c | 126.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 624 | 54.2%338 W · 286 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 91.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 49c | 90.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 34c | 88.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 68c | 75.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 52.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 46c | 45.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 49c | 44.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 40.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 73c | 35.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 38c | 34.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 27.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 27.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 49c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0fcbbacked Under | 62c | 21.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Under | 62c | 18.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.