MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d44c121aa041a31d4ef55582fe9a41e64bf2f8f5782b0b970c013e59bd18ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Athletics | 53c | 15,000$7,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,021.71 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 10,887$5,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,295.66 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 6,933$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,258.65 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 48c | 3,962$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 3,376$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 60c | 1,718$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.67 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 442.06$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.08 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 16c | 367.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Athletics | 63c | 295.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Athletics | 38c | 262.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Athletics | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 709 | 50.1%355 W · 354 L | +24.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 34c | 170.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Athletics | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Athletics | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Athletics | 45c | 139$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 114.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 93.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Athletics | 64c | 93.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 38c | 87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Athletics | 42c | 72.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Athletics | 44c | 70.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 63.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Athletics | 55c | 60.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 57.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 54.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Athletics | 39c | 46.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Athletics | 39c | 46.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 42.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 46c | 41.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 40.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Athletics | 75c | 38.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Athletics | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 26.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 26.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Athletics | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Athletics | 65c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Athletics | 63c | 18.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Athletics | 61c | 18.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Athletics | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Athletics | 65c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.