Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9399ee4f29513c8a54c3dc43d280dd558010d2e99949f87a442c05d53a3fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 54c | 4,011$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.61 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 1,678$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.02 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 1,577$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.56 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 55c | 1,202$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.81 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 57c | 607.17$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.07 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 60c | 593.52$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.39 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 47c | 466.08$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 395.23$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 333.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 267.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 48c | 255.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 226.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 208$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 40c | 185.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 54c | 182.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 53c | 144.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 139.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 118.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 66c | 98.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 56c | 93.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 55c | 91.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 67c | 64.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 35c | 60.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 57.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 70c | 57.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 53c | 56.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…1d1fbacked Over | 53c | 56.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 46c | 44.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 41.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Under | 46c | 23.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 53c | 20.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.