Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8ca6bc22a5128909e7d71563fd00e31009211484552bd7c0271f24d1620cb79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 75c | 2,667$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 6c | 1,979$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 54c | 1,230$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.92 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 40c | 871.21$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.9 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 8c | 627.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +512.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 28c | 606.42$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.79 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed Under | 59c | 538.45$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 38c | 521.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.96 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 407.59$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.82 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 31c | 299.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…09cabacked Under | 46c | 239.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 226.29$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 62c | 195$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 139.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 70c | 124.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 42c | 117.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Under | 45c | 111.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 33c | 92.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 76c | 68.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 56.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…4247backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Over | 34c | 40.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 33c | 30.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 59c | 30.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Under | 55c | 25.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 24.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 49c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -12.3wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -94.4%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 53c | 22.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.