Tennis · resolved market
Chengdu Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Dino Prizmic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9d347cdfe9ad4ecab54c3ec6ae76481fa0b38e37a189c137ee752be82795be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Prizmic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Prizmic | 26c | 4,452$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.91 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Musetti | 73c | 3,600$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Musetti | 73c | 2,352$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.46 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Prizmic | 24c | 2,314$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.16 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Prizmic | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Prizmic | 30c | 983.72$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.45 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…335abacked Prizmic | 38c | 954.25$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Prizmic | 33c | 799.77$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.8 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Musetti | 71c | 723.82$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Musetti | 67c | 554.46$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.97 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Prizmic | 28c | 536.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Prizmic | 30c | 448.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Prizmic | 28c | 441.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.74 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Musetti | 73c | 336.72$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Musetti | 71c | 314.19$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Musetti | 73c | 303$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Musetti | 70c | 285.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Musetti | 72c | 242$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Musetti | 70c | 214.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Musetti | 68c | 146.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Musetti | 69c | 145.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Musetti | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Musetti | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Musetti | 73c | 113.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Prizmic | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Prizmic | 31c | 99.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Musetti | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…93ccbacked Musetti | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Prizmic | 32c | 62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…86dabacked Musetti | 70c | 60.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Prizmic | 32c | 43.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Musetti | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Musetti | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…630ebacked Musetti | 70c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Musetti | 72c | 30.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…a1e0backed Musetti | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.