Australian A League · resolved market
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ea20302f97c831f26ac8953c8a3db02c0b4331cc59824069a2625dbb543b2fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 2,200$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.99 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 20c | 985.68$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 869.73$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.46 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 29c | 652.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 651.6$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 76c | 408.55$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…61cbbacked Under | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 212.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 25c | 191$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 190.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 74c | 190$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 26c | 183.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 25c | 145.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 25c | 137.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 75c | 91.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 75c | 78.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 69.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 75c | 51.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Under | 75c | 35.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Under | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 76c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 73c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 74c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 76c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 76c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 77c | 17.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.