Australian A League · resolved market
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x836148190d93430817edb6e1a8d19ae3d77e96db089b99daba9bd337536c7e97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 8,516$5,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.71 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 22c | 5,622$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.03 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 46c | 4,271$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 2,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 987.72$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.74 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…6ca6backed Under | 55c | 837.66$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 80c | 816.53$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Over | 46c | 536.05$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 42c | 491.35$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.37 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 54c | 443$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 79c | 402.9$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Over | 46c | 365.75$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 56c | 308.03$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 76c | 295.68$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 32c | 287.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 46c | 283.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 42c | 249.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 10c | 236.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 9c | 236.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 16c | 227.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…c93abacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 130.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 116.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Under | 68c | 100.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 58c | 100.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Under | 77c | 97.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 94.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 68c | 92.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 54c | 87.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Under | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Under | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 45c | 36.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…9241backed Under | 68c | 36.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 60c | 31.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 43c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 44c | 28.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 55c | 24.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 23.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 72c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 59c | 18.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.