Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2efa4c864ddb3abb0405a5c99e2fc52668aafd3086dc8fe454185f03209ab14f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 3c | 1,283$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc46…b8a3backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…834bbacked Yes | 10c | 980$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…a6c3backed Yes | 33c | 980$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked No | 68c | 669.32$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 40c | 600$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.69 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…77b9backed Yes | 13c | 535$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 59c | 521$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.82 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…3cf5backed Yes | 39c | 506.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 13c | 480.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…ad50backed No | 75c | 245$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 10c | 167.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…e835backed Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…d31ebacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…417bbacked Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 43c | 80.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…8e5dbacked No | 63c | 79.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 35c | 71.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 16c | 68.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…8d31backed No | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 39c | 59.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 41.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 50c | 41.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 55c | 37.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 11?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 10?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 8?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.