Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75664673084ee52891307cecff5776df8e1dc0af51536bf2279057786d4b4d92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x964e…a040backed Yes | 35c | 31,022$10,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,857.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8f…b090backed No | 65c | 31,002$20,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,850.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,003$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 600$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 12c | 512$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 44c | 500$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.91 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 3c | 358.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked No | 58c | 340$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 44c | 296.4$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 65c | 293.66$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.68 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 44c | 273.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…8145backed No | 80c | 250.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…ad50backed No | 77c | 187.93$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 54c | 143.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed No | 63c | 129.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…cdd7backed Yes | 47c | 122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 59c | 111.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 67c | 104.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 100.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 26c | 96.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 55c | 86.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 29c | 81.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 65.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f77…99e2backed Yes | 38c | 52.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 35c | 40.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 37c | 38.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 42c | 32.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…42eebacked Yes | 42c | 24.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 10?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 11?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 8?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.