Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0bc6187e74bdc981e49e922b172776cb2641660f076baadf894a4410030f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 1,777$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.49 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 1,708$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.04 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Rune Eaters | 31c | 1,272$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.77 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Rune Eaters | 39c | 1,167$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.57 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 1,141$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.91 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…2330backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 840$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Rune Eaters | 24c | 508.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Rune Eaters | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 405.75$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.56 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Rune Eaters | 49c | 360.24$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 300$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…fd05backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 280$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…9805backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…8bbcbacked Rune Eaters | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 160.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 143.04$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 140.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 140.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 109.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 80.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Rune Eaters | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Rune Eaters | 28c | 56.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 53.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 48.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 46.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 46.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Rune Eaters | 42c | 40.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 36.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c4…9deabacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 31.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 59%138 W · 96 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 28.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.