AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f49618dede725a0938c1f96a925757c8595cbe498ced829d65455743bf65807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 8c | 2,226$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 11c | 926.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 9c | 485.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…38d3backed No | 38c | 369.06$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 13c | 360$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 269.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 5c | 205.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 158.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…a1c0backed No | 43c | 149.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…49b6backed Yes | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…4998backed No | 23c | 60.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 42.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 55c | 41.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…49e1backed No | 24c | 41.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 53c | 37.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…b2cfbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 73c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.