Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f61b47b8d6aad1086dad0717fc6e52558735ec50976e9a3f128740c33d7dd49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 34c | 1,672$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.13 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.35per pick | 8cpaid | +320.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 1,240$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.5 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 685.26$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.72 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 68c | 565.25$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.15 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 31c | 510.22$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.05 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Yes | 36c | 451.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 430.97$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.09 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 69c | 247$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.45 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 27c | 193.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Yes | 39c | 169.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 44c | 132.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 15c | 131.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 99.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 47c | 82.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Yes | 65c | 74.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 71c | 60.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 33c | 51.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 71c | 50.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 26c | 42.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 46c | 41.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 63c | 37.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 66c | 36.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 60c | 34.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…8417backed No | 69c | 29.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Yes | 78c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Yes | 75c | 24.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 56c | 22.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Yes | 70c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 73c | 19.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.