Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f61572a1eecc50628cbabb82a66a7cb227f42f4b8221837e5a2713f0676859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 52c | 1,264$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.6 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 48c | 952.48$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.71 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 54c | 690.34$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.11 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 624.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 75c | 538$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.81 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 26c | 371.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 33c | 326.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.49 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 323.28$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 321.21$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 75c | 278$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 12c | 243.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 25c | 213.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 78c | 202.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 39c | 177.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 20c | 162.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 74c | 143.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a2…0593backed No | 77c | 140.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Yes | 25c | 117.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…8af6backed No | 77c | 113.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes | 54c | 109.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 34c | 108$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 41c | 97.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 28c | 93.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 50c | 88.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 77c | 71.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0430…80a2backed Yes | 25c | 70.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 76c | 68.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 35c | 62.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Yes | 25c | 57.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 25c | 53.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 61c | 46.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 77c | 39.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 74c | 21.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 76c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed No | 64c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-25?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.