Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6ad1848a52a38a1b7d7a21e880862673356380d309236a840a2b37198165c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8972…a32ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,777$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,545.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 25c | 1,249$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.73 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 55c | 953.38$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.16 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 63c | 487.7$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.95 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 14c | 306$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 52c | 233.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…5274backed No | 8c | 141.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 45c | 100.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 11c | 94.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 57c | 74.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +176.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 62c | 60.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe813…7366backed Yes | 52c | 46.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3527…ec09backed No | 37c | 40.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…5c0cbacked Yes | 64c | 40.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…69eabacked Yes | 64c | 35.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 35c | 29.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 69c | 29.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…7a48backed No | 37c | 28.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cd…6221backed Yes | 65c | 17.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…f4cfbacked Yes | 64c | 15.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc321…de61backed No | 64c | 15.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…91d1backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.