Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f7d5fe628e619d7ff343fb9f04bba43254b39562e05fa7c7f3ee25670b0a490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 4,299$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 17c | 2,328$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 5c | 835$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +33.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 20c | 828.39$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 16c | 568.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked No | 80c | 505.46$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 21c | 487.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 8c | 365.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 15c | 303.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…385cbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…6ddabacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed No | 80c | 230.84$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 39c | 189.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 17c | 171.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…c173backed Yes | 21c | 137.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1113…94dfbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 76c | 123.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 78c | 123.72$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 12c | 113.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 19c | 82.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4099…8c46backed Yes | 19c | 79.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 24c | 77.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 26c | 76.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 20c | 60.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Yes | 41c | 60.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 42c | 35.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…1942backed Yes | 43c | 32.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 80c | 29.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.