TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,600 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1838…29b4backed Yes2c6,666$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes1c5,397$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0893034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes4c4,293$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.992,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes1c3,210$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4211227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes1c1,946$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0622236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes39c1,335$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5193732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Yes48c1,008$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.953452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes4c967.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1726827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No65c939.35$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.277347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes2c810$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No53c759.82$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.4791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Yes52c586.24$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.492133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.4wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No61c538.07$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.041,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes38c533.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002532%8 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35a…e615backed No67c499.97$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.995824.1%14 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-46%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes17c490.51$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Yes52c419$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.951936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c413$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.736,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes12c401.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4126828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ced…e412backed Yes29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes18c392.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.573023.3%7 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c379.13$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.853,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes31c361.23$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8226265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No74c323.31$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c283.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.631,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes21c266.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1734618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes18c235.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5772222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb254…c972backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c199.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes30c195.43$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.853920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes25c193.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4116355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No71c189.74$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c184.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes33c183.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8117338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes29c170$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No68c157$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.171,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c51…d7aebacked No76c152.76$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.292825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes20c149.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes24c140.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.141,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes37c135.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes32c129.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.597229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes38c125.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes35c113.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No68c110.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No68c109.69$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6941070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes36c109.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaeb…8032backed No65c106.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.842343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes50c104.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.266445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No53c102.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5942857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes16c99.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.112,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes30c98.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5210650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes13c96.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.639810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No76c92.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.252245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes36c83.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes28c81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.522,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No49c79.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5110055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c78.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.422,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c77.81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.178,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.467,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes35c69.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4433726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe942…2c3ebacked Yes49c67.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.664027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc437…0f42backed Yes30c66.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes20c65.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0329137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes39c65.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4318035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes20c64.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1115923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf2…559cbacked Yes40c63.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44c…5a20backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No60c60.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.951,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.982,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes51c59.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c59.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No52c58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0249941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0401…69debacked Yes22c52.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.782334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55812.1%7 W · 51 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b79…7562backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.556265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb6…636fbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3db6…4894backed Yes51c49.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254339.5%17 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8643…82a0backed Yes36c49.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cda…3d8abacked No71c49.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.271250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes31c48.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.155129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x378a…a773backed Yes56c46.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No70c45.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7131262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No49c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32df…cce8backed Yes45c44.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No51c43.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.369656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c7…d9dbbacked Yes46c43.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked No75c42.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.366737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df8…4005backed No72c41.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5810841.7%45 W · 63 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No75c39.68$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0810060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes43c36.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7612932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4f5…d03bbacked No68c35.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ded…427abacked Yes33c35.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes33c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.228153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.