Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb4d6e4a29379703895ea9d812bc6c30f7bab3fb94be1d975b22d6f9851baf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,098 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 1c | 38,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 0c | 10,999$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde2…fbf1backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,374$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 3,297$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,873$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 17c | 2,062$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.81 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,866$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,300$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.18 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 78c | 916.96$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 22c | 841.78$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 653.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 14c | 643.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 79c | 530$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed Yes | 12c | 434.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 430.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 418$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 412.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 4c | 340.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 330.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 308.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 244.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 243.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 41c | 241.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 232.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 28c | 232.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 17c | 222.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 23c | 197.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 196.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 25c | 169.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 19c | 164.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 26c | 149.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 138.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…946cbacked Yes | 22c | 136.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 74c | 134.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 30c | 131.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 125.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 13c | 104.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 104.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…e198backed Yes | 16c | 98.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 12c | 97.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 23c | 97.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 96.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 80c | 94.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 24c | 91.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 89.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…6c26backed No | 80c | 86.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 83.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…0199backed Yes | 25c | 83.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 79.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 25c | 79.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 19c | 77.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 26c | 69.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 20c | 69.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 68.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed Yes | 19c | 67.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35be…567ebacked No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 20c | 50.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…f058backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 23c | 49.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 65c | 47.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 35.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 79c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 78c | 21.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…8d66backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…4ff7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.