Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85177e234fb762fcd10cdfe802677ec9989f921c69ad455d0daaa6effbd7b48c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,880 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c9…f211backed No | 1c | 19,699$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed No | 0c | 13,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 3c | 4,180$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed No | 1c | 3,678$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…8414backed No | 0c | 2,700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed No | 1c | 2,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed No | 1c | 2,049$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 1,679$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…e615backed Yes | 71c | 1,576$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,224$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 3c | 868.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 674.34$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.98 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 628.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 75c | 545.02$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 418$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 393.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No | 20c | 364.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…5546backed No | 3c | 362.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 33c | 352.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 4c | 348.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 38c | 323.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 312.95$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 287.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.21 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 286.09$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 44c | 280.53$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.39 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 25c | 237.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.73 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 225.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 32c | 197.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 38c | 184.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.41 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 42c | 176.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 70c | 163.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 30c | 156$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 43c | 153.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 147.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 43c | 139.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 72c | 133.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 132.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 35c | 122.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 120.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 28c | 107.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 106.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 106.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 24c | 103.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 103.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 50c | 97.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 97.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 28c | 96.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 92.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 52c | 81.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 75.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 44c | 70.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 44c | 68.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 68.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 67.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 28c | 64.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 64.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 59c | 63.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 66c | 58.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 58.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…5a20backed Yes | 35c | 57.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 65c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 69c | 56.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 35c | 56.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…df79backed Yes | 29c | 52.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…e247backed Yes | 40c | 51.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 26c | 50.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…7562backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…636fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 47c | 49.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 62c | 47.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 71c | 46.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…fcccbacked No | 23c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 44.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…d9dbbacked Yes | 34c | 43.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 39.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 37.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 73c | 36.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 33c | 36.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.