Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f9161c0a911c52b529aca21cdd640e4c8ef95cb65060a700f43a15656f3f1c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 753.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 39c | 525.77$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 500.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 29c | 239.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 152.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 148.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 64c | 144.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 75c | 138.47$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 128.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 36c | 118.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…95a7backed Yes | 12c | 104.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 66c | 102.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 94.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 76.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 59.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 58.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 54.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 52.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 48.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 77c | 45.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 73c | 41.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 41.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 36c | 41.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 38.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 59c | 34.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 78c | 32.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 31.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 53c | 29.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 79c | 29.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed Yes | 44c | 24.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 21.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 77c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.