NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f98eff11efa249e6f25d1f90aeadb6829b3996f02b8c1f7e0c719a9e2b24f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Maple Leafs, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Flames | 61c | 995.27$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.16 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 605$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.99 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Maple Leafs | 39c | 587.2$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Flames | 62c | 526.3$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Flames | 61c | 225$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Maple Leafs | 38c | 194.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Flames | 61c | 148.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 119.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Flames | 63c | 103.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…56c1backed Flames | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…9e61backed Maple Leafs | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 93.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Maple Leafs | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Flames | 59c | 70.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Flames | 60c | 54.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Maple Leafs | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…038bbacked Maple Leafs | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Flames vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.