NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ca051ee2e20d9f0f801a1d0464a7539f98145bcc8f3b757d613ac320042b218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 49c | 3,253$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.89 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 54c | 2,051$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.96 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 54c | 1,686$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.15 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,145$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.25 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…9cfcbacked Under | 49c | 570$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…2370backed Over | 51c | 570$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Over | 56c | 333$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 327.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under | 50c | 183.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 81.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 55c | 75.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96e…8793backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…9b6dbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…70f5backed Over | 56c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.