AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa398b0da1dddf91587ca5b78410460c1d418126226bcd45a02d35d0958f6e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 719.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 312.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 229.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 7c | 192.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 10c | 178$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 9c | 168.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 34c | 124.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 120.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 103.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 13c | 101.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 13c | 97.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 43.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 79c | 21.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Microsoft have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Mistral have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.