Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fae3529fd2873f76992581592ce3c6ef86f9cdfc3e6ce273421712f0cf1459f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 3,867$2,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.03 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 24c | 3,019$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.9 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…4d60backed Yes | 26c | 3,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 563.95$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Yes | 3c | 458.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 10c | 346.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 73c | 248.72$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 226.24$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…a7ecbacked Yes | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 206.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 28c | 201.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 173$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 76c | 150.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 24c | 97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed Yes | 26c | 83.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 77c | 80.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 77c | 70.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 20c | 50.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 77c | 43.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 77c | 42.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 38.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…1035backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.