Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da0e20f5b59d39a91651acbd3bf5f5372e9e08770320a160e57d7b22ab2d4e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 45c | 10,895$4,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,931.37 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 47c | 7,549$3,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,583.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…8b76backed Yes | 42c | 6,000$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 54c | 4,905$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.03 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 4,693$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.19 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 4,068$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked No | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…4d60backed Yes | 35c | 2,500$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 43c | 2,417$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.28 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 1,196$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 52c | 1,003$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.46 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 52c | 955.24$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.1 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 50c | 922.78$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.64 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked No | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Yes | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…a2a6backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…0905backed Yes | 39c | 453.13$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 55c | 440.04$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed No | 59c | 400$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Yes | 4c | 391.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…7e82backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 52c | 359$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.32 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 52c | 359$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.32 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 21c | 285.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 50c | 222$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 49c | 194$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 179.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…1035backed No | 70c | 153.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 48c | 149.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed No | 61c | 140.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…b127backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 124.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…4d7bbacked Yes | 34c | 114.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed No | 52c | 101$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 51c | 96.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 42c | 92.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Yes | 49c | 75.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Yes | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked No | 29c | 69.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Yes | 48c | 68.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 55c | 61.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 51c | 61.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 36c | 58.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 67c | 49.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 65c | 42.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 67c | 38.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 48c | 33.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 32.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 48c | 28.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 45c | 28.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed No | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 52c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbae…c6d3backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 64c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…9591backed Yes | 52c | 21.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed No | 52c | 21.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 52c | 21.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed No | 53c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.