Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fd6a0f7017a02fe0a83f52ad9807fbd063ba6e3a3f622b64bec908aa9f710c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Over | 46c | 406.58$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Under | 38c | 180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 64c | 136.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…64c3backed Over | 46c | 108.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 46c | 107.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 53c | 101.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 35c | 88.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Under | 54c | 49.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Over | 65c | 47.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…f793backed Over | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Under | 54c | 30.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…b1acbacked Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 62c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.