Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7393ca19fec8c52123818ff1e3e39720339b5ce40a6024cb201368841be5299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $748,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $877,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $748,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora | 45c | 181,346$81,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,783.05 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Team Spirit | 54c | 141,190$76,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,535.64 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit | 59c | 130,043$76,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,108.66 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 45c | 61,281$27,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,576.67 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 33,764$21,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,532.73 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora | 37c | 25,000$9,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,249.99 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora | 30c | 21,785$6,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,433.9 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora | 40c | 20,358$8,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,226.67 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit | 65c | 20,250$13,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,134.62 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora | 34c | 20,007$6,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,880.26 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Team Spirit | 62c | 18,888$11,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,177.43 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 38c | 18,000$6,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,920 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora | 37c | 13,746$5,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,021.77 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 46c | 12,459$5,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,731 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Team Spirit | 55c | 11,761$6,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,340 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 45c | 10,778$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Spirit | 55c | 10,109$5,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.52 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 44c | 10,000$4,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,384 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…1c20backed Aurora | 38c | 9,961$3,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,781.75 | 290 | 42.1%122 W · 168 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 37c | 7,002$2,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,615.27 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf991…3965backed Team Spirit | 64c | 6,909$4,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.31 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora | 45c | 6,500$2,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Aurora | 11c | 6,371$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.62 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit | 60c | 6,300$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,526.44 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…d85abacked Aurora | 34c | 5,724$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…eae7backed Aurora | 46c | 5,589$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit | 65c | 5,577$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.73 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Team Spirit | 56c | 5,536$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.71 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora | 38c | 5,500$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.34 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Aurora | 36c | 5,424$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Team Spirit | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Spirit | 63c | 4,764$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.08 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…db43backed Team Spirit | 63c | 4,702$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Team Spirit | 55c | 4,500$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.76 | 325 | 49.8%162 W · 163 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora | 33c | 4,457$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.1 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit | 59c | 4,202$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.82 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Aurora | 41c | 4,200$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora | 39c | 4,093$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.18 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.99 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora | 40c | 3,991$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.34 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit | 64c | 3,734$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.38 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…80d0backed Team Spirit | 55c | 3,604$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.9 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…158ebacked Team Spirit | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.43 | 235 | 61.7%145 W · 90 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit | 62c | 3,327$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.57 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Team Spirit | 65c | 3,322$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.67 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 3,169$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.38 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora | 40c | 3,112$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.8 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit | 57c | 2,991$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.77 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x468c…d7cabacked Team Spirit | 69c | 2,897$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.83 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit | 61c | 2,844$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.76 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora | 45c | 2,841$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.08 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 36c | 2,700$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Team Spirit | 58c | 2,589$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.3 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Team Spirit | 63c | 2,480$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 2,400$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Aurora | 29c | 2,373$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked Aurora | 25c | 2,359$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.94 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Aurora | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 45c | 2,000$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Team Spirit | 69c | 1,953$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.71 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Team Spirit | 55c | 1,810$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.5 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit | 60c | 1,799$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.24 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed Team Spirit | 77c | 1,735$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.16 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora | 37c | 1,538$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.08 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Team Spirit | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.99 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Aurora | 40c | 1,421$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…7ab6backed Team Spirit | 59c | 1,400$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 75c | 1,366$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.66 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Aurora | 41c | 1,354$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit | 56c | 1,317$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.65 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora | 40c | 1,314$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.6 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…8df6backed Aurora | 37c | 1,300$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Aurora | 48c | 1,270$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.59 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit | 62c | 1,252$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…7928backed Team Spirit | 55c | 1,250$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.98 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Aurora | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 315 | 47.6%150 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 1,150$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 1,139$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.64 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Spirit | 67c | 1,112$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.6 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Team Spirit | 64c | 1,111$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.96 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Aurora | 45c | 1,044$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Aurora | 38c | 1,041$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.84 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Team Spirit | 60c | 1,035$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.72 | 224 | 61.2%137 W · 87 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora | 45c | 1,017$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.47 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Aurora | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Aurora | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Aurora | 41c | 992.96$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.11 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora | 36c | 981.68$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Aurora | 46c | 979.35$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.5 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5167…ccefbacked Team Spirit | 64c | 937.5$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit | 58c | 908.33$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.23 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 23c | 900$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora | 37c | 900$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…08c5backed Team Spirit | 62c | 899.5$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…5fa2backed Aurora | 35c | 840.57$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.52 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b476backed Aurora | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…5ad4backed Team Spirit | 75c | 800.51$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Spirit | 63c | 786$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.92 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.