TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$748,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$877,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $748,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora45c181,346$81,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,783.0528748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Team Spirit54c141,190$76,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,535.6412259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit59c130,043$76,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,108.661,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora45c61,281$27,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,576.6733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit63c33,764$21,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,532.7328159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Aurora37c25,000$9,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,249.998847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Aurora30c21,785$6,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,433.989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Aurora40c20,358$8,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,226.6740051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit65c20,250$13,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,134.6280256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Aurora34c20,007$6,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,880.261,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Spirit62c18,888$11,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,177.4315951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora38c18,000$6,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,92036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Aurora37c13,746$5,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,021.7769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora46c12,459$5,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7311,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Team Spirit55c11,761$6,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,34022644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora45c10,778$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,85096557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Spirit55c10,109$5,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.5217452.3%91 W · 83 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora44c10,000$4,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,38442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Aurora38c9,961$3,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,781.7529042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora37c7,002$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,615.272,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Spirit64c6,909$4,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,487.3131248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora45c6,500$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92141055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Aurora11c6,371$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.6271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit60c6,300$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.441,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Aurora34c5,724$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9504951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Aurora46c5,589$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55412557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Spirit65c5,577$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.7348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Spirit56c5,536$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,435.7139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Aurora38c5,500$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.3456542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Aurora36c5,424$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Spirit63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85016746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Team Spirit63c4,764$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.086354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8735…db43backed Team Spirit63c4,702$2,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.851154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Spirit55c4,500$2,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.7632549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora33c4,457$1,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.188539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit59c4,202$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.821,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Aurora41c4,200$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72827143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora39c4,093$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.1856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Aurora45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9965863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora40c3,991$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.3436248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Spirit64c3,734$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.3842145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Team Spirit55c3,604$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.922853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Team Spirit56c3,571$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.4323561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit62c3,327$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.5768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Spirit65c3,322$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.6761456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit60c3,169$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.381,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Aurora40c3,112$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.88258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit57c2,991$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.7735062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x468c…d7cabacked Team Spirit69c2,897$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.833764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Spirit61c2,844$1,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.7689749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Aurora45c2,841$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.0841056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora36c2,700$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97960646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Team Spirit58c2,589$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.322868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Team Spirit63c2,480$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9306058.3%35 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Spirit56c2,400$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05695342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Aurora29c2,373$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Aurora25c2,359$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.9450347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Aurora35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004843.8%21 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora45c2,000$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Aurora10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Spirit69c1,953$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.7147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Team Spirit55c1,810$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.527060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit60c1,799$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.241,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2495…28f5backed Team Spirit77c1,735$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.169161.5%56 W · 35 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora37c1,538$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.0841944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Spirit65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.9949455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Aurora40c1,421$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d1…7ab6backed Team Spirit59c1,400$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5681758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit75c1,366$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.662,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Aurora41c1,354$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55561745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit56c1,317$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.6560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora40c1,314$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.613851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f30…8df6backed Aurora37c1,300$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48116555.2%91 W · 74 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Aurora48c1,270$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.5937945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Spirit62c1,252$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47635758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c9e…7928backed Team Spirit55c1,250$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.982937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Aurora38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Spirit56c1,150$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50686659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Spirit67c1,139$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.641,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Spirit67c1,112$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.61,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Team Spirit64c1,111$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.967742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Aurora45c1,044$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47039042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Aurora38c1,041$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8443049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Team Spirit60c1,035$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.7222461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora45c1,017$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.4769835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Aurora46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Aurora6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Aurora41c992.96$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1122727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aurora36c981.68$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Aurora46c979.35$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.530357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5167…ccefbacked Team Spirit64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.53030%9 W · 21 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-47.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit58c908.33$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.2372035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora23c900$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4877458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Aurora37c900$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33365441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed Team Spirit62c899.5$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed Aurora35c840.57$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.525850%29 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Aurora37c810.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010645.3%48 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…5ad4backed Team Spirit75c800.51$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Spirit63c786$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.928540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.