Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83bda46e8ec5821e59b484502d4012afa6c05f8e1390f5c4a02f970b82812255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Spirit, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7e3…22cbbacked Team Spirit | 42c | 5,537$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1136…0c2ebacked Aurora | 62c | 4,779$2,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Aurora | 58c | 3,995$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.82 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit | 39c | 3,617$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 58c | 3,383$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.76 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58d1…7ab6backed Team Spirit | 38c | 2,620$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Aurora | 61c | 2,536$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.13 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Team Spirit | 51c | 2,525$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.58 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 52c | 2,291$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.23 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…f573backed Team Spirit | 42c | 2,277$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495d…68d8backed Team Spirit | 38c | 1,842$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 57c | 1,493$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.86 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Aurora | 62c | 1,003$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.12 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Aurora | 44c | 902.56$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.56 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Aurora | 61c | 828.6$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.15 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Aurora | 57c | 743.84$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.85 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Spirit | 38c | 616.89$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.25 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora | 61c | 509.37$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 46c | 500$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.24 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Aurora | 42c | 420.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.12 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…dc6ebacked Aurora | 60c | 410$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Team Spirit | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Aurora | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Aurora | 39c | 294.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Spirit | 38c | 265$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…8c55backed Team Spirit | 39c | 259.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…6fc2backed Team Spirit | 39c | 240$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…c111backed Team Spirit | 43c | 155.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Spirit | 42c | 141.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Spirit | 43c | 131.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Spirit | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Team Spirit | 38c | 130.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Aurora | 58c | 130.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Team Spirit | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Spirit | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…1456backed Team Spirit | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked Team Spirit | 39c | 117.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed Aurora | 61c | 117.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x310b…19ccbacked Aurora | 61c | 113.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Aurora | 63c | 111.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Spirit | 39c | 109.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Spirit | 43c | 107.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…8a46backed Aurora | 63c | 106.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Team Spirit | 53c | 93.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Team Spirit | 37c | 92.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Aurora | 48c | 75.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Spirit | 39c | 74.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Team Spirit | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Spirit | 37c | 53.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…af68backed Team Spirit | 39c | 51.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…d6e9backed Team Spirit | 42c | 46.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6e…6dc3backed Team Spirit | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Aurora | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed Team Spirit | 40c | 29.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…98e8backed Aurora | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Aurora | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…5896backed Team Spirit | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684a…064ebacked Team Spirit | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Aurora | 62c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Aurora | 58c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad91…8299backed Team Spirit | 67c | 19.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Aurora | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.