Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2feb81b0f49753a0a4a20c1bcc3519e869d952f901d696b634ccc051ec2ec3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 49c | 30,415$14,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,603.38 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 52c | 17,988$9,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,318.61 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 10,206$5,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,234.74 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Under | 49c | 1,467$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.2 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 52c | 571.88$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 53c | 570$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 267 | 40.8%109 W · 158 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 53c | 561.1$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 53c | 561.1$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 47c | 555$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.15 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 53c | 506.79$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…e860backed Over | 52c | 478.44$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Over | 53c | 326.64$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 48c | 249.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.9 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 247.71$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 45c | 230$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 219.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Under | 50c | 187.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 148.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 48c | 124.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -10.2wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Over | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 53c | 79.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…1eccbacked Under | 50c | 39.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 49c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 35.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 48c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 52c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 150.5this page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan WolverinesDuke Blue Devils won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)Duke Blue Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.